WITH ONLY a four-seat majority in the House of Representatives, socio-economic and environmental conditions have dealt Prime Minister Bruce Golding what some commentators have described as "a bad hand."

Golding came to power on the back of Hurricane Dean and ended his first year mopping up the horror of Tropical Storm Gustav, which ravaged eastern parishes. In between, world oil and commodity prices spiked to unprecedented levels.

And then there was the world economic meltdown that is threatening to run many countries into the ground. In this regard, Finance Minister Audley Shaw could be looking at revising his $489.5 billion budget which was tabled in April.

Last month, at a Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) conference in Tivoli Gardens, senior party member Pearnel Charles said, "No other government in the history of Jamaica has had to face the turbulence of hurricane last year and hurricane this year and all of the other problems."

Things were bad

General Secretary Karl Samuda also told the Labourites, at the same event, that "while we were campaigning, we thought things were bad. In fact, we knew that they were bad, but Labourites, let me tell you, we had no idea how bad it was."

In addition to the socio-economic difficulties, Golding is politically handicapped by the constitutional motions brought against four elected JLP members of Parliament (MPs), which might force him to call a general election should the court declare them ineligible to sit in the House of Representatives.

The Court of Appeal has heard arguments brought by the JLP's Daryl Vaz and the Opposition People's National Party's (PNP), Abe Dabdoub, and will shortly determine whether Vaz remain MP for West Portland.

Dabdoub had convinced Chief Justice Zaila McCalla that Vaz, who was at the time of his nomination an American citizen, is not eligible to sit in the House. McCalla has ordered a by-election, but Dabdoub wants the seat to be handed to him. The decision in the Vaz case could impact three other JLP MPs - Gregory Mair, Shahine Robinson and Michael Stern.

Under-estimated governance

Political analysts Richard Crawford believes the JLP under-estimated the job of governance while it was campaigning.

"The Government went overboard and promised what it could not deliver," Crawford says, while adding that "it does not appear that the Government has done its homework and is capable of managing the country properly".

According to Crawford, should Golding choose not to go the route of a coalition government, or is saved from an election, he must find a way to make his government more effective.

"He needs to revamp and reconstitute his entire government and come out with a dynamic plan and team and perform in a way necessary to remain in office as a successful government," Crawford suggests.

But for political analyst Kevin O'Brien Chang, this major revamp is not necessary. He says crime is the only issue he is willing to blame the JLP for, but notes that "neither the PNP nor the JLP are willing to touch it".

In the meantime though, Chang says it is high time that Golding move decisively to replace Colonel Trevor MacMillan as the minister of national security.

"He has been a disappointment. We are not getting anything out of him," Chang says, reflecting a view which Crawford shares.

MacMillan was added to the JLP's Cabinet earlier this year and given the job of national security minister after Derrick Smith fell ill and was relieved of the portfolio.