Over his 40-year career Prime Minister Bruce Golding has enjoyed a life of political second chances.

But with the backlash from last week's military strike on gunmen in Tivoli Gardens in an effort to capture alleged drug kingpin Christopher 'Dudus' Coke and the resulting death toll of 76 people to date, political watchers have weighed in on whether or not Golding's career has seen its proverbial nine lives.

Two of four political analysts interviewed by the Observer on the weekend, lecturer Richard 'Dickie' Crawford and publisher Lloyd B Smith, are agreed that "the door is closing" on Golding's career, which Smith described as "terminally ill [with] no likely remedy".

Both men believe that the operation in Tivoli Gardens, a community fiercely loyal to Golding's Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) within the prime minister's West Kingston constituency and which most times resists, violently, efforts by the security forces to enter, will result in the demise of Golding's career.

"I don't see him lasting a long time," said Smith. "The next election will likely be won by the People's National Party. By that time he will be dead in the water and the Labour party will start looking for new leadership. Mr Golding is politically terminally ill and there is no likely remedy."

But two other analysts differ, offering that two years in politics is time enough for Golding to make amends with the people of Tivoli Gardens and other outraged Labourites across the island, who are now vowing to withhold their votes in the next general elections, constitutionally due in another two years.

Columnist and University of Technology academician Martin Henry -- who shares the dissenting view with Professor Trevor Munroe, co-host of the Breakfast Club morning talk show -- has even predicted a victory for Golding come 2012 if he is able to successfully tackle crime and corruption and sever the link between politics and gunmen.

"Two years can be a long time. The next elections are not due till 2012, by which time much can be done to neutralise the animosities, to offer the people a better and different alternative. The announcement of his political passing, I think, is very premature," Henry said, while adding that the margin of support with which the prime minister came to power "is still holding pretty firmly".

Golding's career of political second chances is well documented.

After 30 years of outstanding service, he resigned from the JLP in 1995 over a fuss that also engulfed the now infamous Gang of Five issue, a claim that influential party members had teamed up to topple Edward Seaga from his leadership position, to form the National Democratic Movement (NDM).

Golding languished in the political wilderness for a year after leaving the NDM in 2001 following the party's failure to win a single seat in the 1997 general elections and its poor showing in its challenge for the North East St Ann constituency in a 2001 parliamentary by-election.

During his time away from politics, Golding tried his hands at daytime radio by hosting the fledging talk show Disclosure on Hot 102 FM until 2002 when he negotiated a return to the JLP.

Three years later, Golding was elected leader of the party after succeeding Seaga as member of parliament for West Kingston. Seaga had retired and now holds senior positions at the University of the West Indies and the University of Technology.

A mere two years later, the JLP ended the 18-year reign of the People's National Party with a narrow four-seat victory in the September 2007 polls, bringing to fruition Golding's ambition of leading the country.

His troubles, however, came immediately upon taking office. The country's already anaemic economy was hard hit by the global economic crisis, forcing the island's subsequent return to a borrowing relationship with the International Monetary Fund. Add to that the ever spiralling murder/crime rate, which saw the appointment of three security ministers (Col Trevor MacMillan, Derrick Smith and Dwight Nelson) in short order and two commissioners of police (Hardley Lewin and Owen Ellington).

Even from this early stage, detractors had been sounding the death knell on Golding's career, made more pronounced with the freezing of public sector wages and the threat of massive layoffs.

But the greatest threat to Golding's career would come a mere two years into his reign as he wrestled to block Coke's extradition to the US where the Tivoli don is wanted on gun- and drug-running charges.

Golding took heavy flack and underwent a chorus of calls for his resignation from the Opposition, powerful business, church and human rights groups, after finally confessing in Parliament that he had sanctioned the hiring of US law firm Manatt, Phelps & Phillips to lobby Washington over the stand-off between his administration and the US regarding the August 2009 extradition request.

The calls for the prime minister's resignation had somewhat waned as he was widely forgiven, it seemed, following his apology to the nation on May 17 over his handling of the extradition and Manatt affairs, which resulted in the resignation on May 26 of Ronald Robinson as junior foreign minister.

However, Golding immediately set himself at odds with West Kingston when, during his apology, he announced that he had instructed Justice Minister Dorothy Lightbourne to give the authority to commence with extradition proceedings against Coke, after nine months of stonewalling the process.

Coke's supporters were further enraged when it was announced the following day that a warrant had been issued for his arrest. The reaction from Tivoli Gardens was swift. Booby-trapped barricades were immediately erected at the entrance points to the community and a massive demonstration was staged along Spanish Town Road in which the mostly-female-protesters chanted "No Dudus, no Bruce".

Things came to a head on Monday, May 24 when the security forces moved into Tivoli to capture Coke and restore law and order in that section of the city.

But the operation had barely ended before g****roots labourites started calling for Golding's resignation, a call that was echoed by former prime minister Seaga, who had built and nurtured the community of Tivoli Gardens, which former Police Commissioner Lewin, in his days as chief of defence staff at the JDF, described as the "Mother of all garrisons".

Lewin's characterisation of the community came after gunmen in 2001 repelled an effort by the security forces who went there to confiscate illegal weapons.

"Frankly, that is my view because he is showing day by day that he cannot cope," Seaga said in an interview aired on TVJ last week in which he called on Golding to resign.

Then there were the howls for Golding's resignation from his constituents that rang loud during a media tour of Tivoli Gardens last week.

"No Bruce Golding, no voting. Bruce gwaan. All when we dead we no want you," shouted a woman.

"We no want Bruce round ya. We no want him round ya. Bruce Golding, go back to NDM," another blurted out.

Prime ministers before Golding have seen rough times, but none as intense in such a short period as Golding. Political watchers have blamed Michael Manley's democratic socialist experiment for his massive defeat in the 1980 election, which was won by the JLP with Seaga at its head.

Seaga's own management style and his perceived association with the deadly Shower Posse in addition to the violence within his constituency, analysts say, cost him the 1989 election and each successive general election leading up to him being pushed from the party which he famously declared he alone was capable of leading.

Now, analysts are saying that the Tivoli Gardens raid of last week is Golding's Waterloo.

"The way I see it right now is that it appears that all the doors are closing on Mr Golding. The latest episode of the response of his constituency, particularly from Tivoli Gardens, is proof of that," said Richard 'Dickie' Crawford, a lecturer in the Department of Government at the University of the West Indies (UWI). Crawford also pointed to the awkward relationship between Golding and Tivoli Gardens, a community that was instrumental in him securing the West Kingston constituency.

Crawford said that Tivoli Gardens' rejection of Golding could result in all of West Kingston turning its back on him. If this happens, the prime minister would have to seek another constituency and this, Crawford said, would be difficult as Tivoli Gardens could influence his rejection wherever he attempted to go.

Should Golding decide to remain in West Kingston, Crawford believes, residents may just withhold their votes.

Smith, the publisher of the Western Mirror newspaper, said Golding should use the remaining time in office to implement some of the promises that he had made during his election campaign and reiterated during his apology to the nation in an effort to shore up his legacy.

"He now will have to choose one single thing and give it his all," said Smith. "I personally feel that he should focus on crime because crime will include the whole business of garrisons, campaign financing and the political link with gunmen. He does not have much time to play with. Mr Seaga's damning statement may be another damaging nail in his political coffin."

But Henry and Munroe, who is a professor of government and politics at the University of West Indies, believe otherwise.

"As I have indicated, there is time and political space for a savvy Government and prime minister to lay bridges... and face the Jamaican people in the next elections," said Henry.

He added that the operation in Tivoli Gardens has received "tremendous" national support, described Seaga as out of sync with the national mood, while noting that Tivoli Gardens does not constitute the West Kingston constituency. Furthermore, he said, Tivoli Gardens has not shown the organisational or advocacy prowess to mount any career-threatening lobby against Golding.

"I don't get the impression by any means that the country is hostile against the Government or Mr Golding or the events which have transpired in the last several days in the engagement of the paramilitary in Western Kingston and elsewhere," said Henry. "Golding has national space and political space for a bounce back. As Mark Twain once said, 'The news of my death has been much exaggerated'."

Munroe believes that Golding should not be counted out just yet, noting that he has now done what seven prime ministers before him had failed to do: take on the "crime monster".

Munroe said that it would be a big plus for Golding if his "surgery" to rid the country and "the Jamaican body politic" of this cancer, starting in Western Kingston, started the process of healing, and renewal.

He said that when all the gangs are removed, including those aligned to both political parties, there will be a need for massive economic, social and psychological help inside Tivoli Gardens, and other communities to restore them to a state where business and enterprise can flourish and where people can live normal lives without being beholden to criminal dons.

"If the rehabilitation is done and we get the help to do it, Mr Golding may well be able to restore the people of West Kingston's trust in him, and if not, then he goes somewhere else," said Munroe.